Colorized transmission electron micrograph of Avian influenza A H5N1 viruses (seen in gold). Image provided by CDC/C. Goldsmith, J. Katz, and S. Zaki.
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Pandemic Economic Resources
Since the fall of 2005 there have been several serious studies of the macroeconomic effect a mild, moderate,
or severe influenza pandemic might have on the economy of individual nations and the world as a whole. These
studies range from those concerned principally with the impact of this event on stock and bond investments to
an analysis of the impact on production, consumption, and GDP. While not a complete collection of reports of
this type, the resources listed below represent some on the best examples I have identified.
Grattan Woodson
- Nesbitt Burns Investors Guide to Avian Flu Pandemic Aug2005.pdf
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BMO Nesbitt Burns Research published An Investor’s Guide to Avian Flu in August 2005. The authors, Sherry Cooper,
PhD and Donald Coxe provide one of the first carefully thought out assessment of the effect a pandemic would have
on financial investments. What distinguishes their report was its being based upon a scenario for the pandemic
that allowed for the authors to use economic modeling to make economic projections for the macroeconomy that could
then be assessed from a sector-by-sector viewpoint.
View the .pdf(1155kb) - Don’t Fear Fear of Panic Panic Pandemic Economics 11Oct2005.pdf
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BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Sherry Cooper, PhD published her second avian influenza study Don’t Fear Fear or Panic
Panic; an economist’s view of pandemic flu in October 2005. In her study, Dr. Cooper bases her analysis on a very
thorough pandemic model that takes into consideration the gravity of a pandemic and the potential for there to be
widespread economic disruption caused by worker absenteeism. The effect this has on production, transportation,
and distribution of goods and services is explored in a thoroughgoing and expert manner. The study provides
investors with guidance for weathering the financial storm a severe pandemic is sure to bring.
View the .pdf(890kb) - Macroeconomic Effect of Pandemic US CBO 8Dec2005.pdf
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At the request of Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), the Congressional Budget Office conducted a study of the
macroeconomic effect of pandemic influenza on the US economy. The study, A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible
Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues, was released in December 2006. This study uses a simple model to project
the economic impact two scenarios, mild and severe. The model used projects rates of absenteeism expected for
various industrial sectors of the economy and determines the effect this will have on US GDP. It predicts little
or no impact from a mild pandemic and a modest economic recession costing the US $675 billion dollars with a
severe pandemic.
View the .pdf(690kb) - Macroeconomic Effect of Pandemic US CBO 8Dec2005.pdf
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At the request of Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), the Congressional Budget Office conducted a study of the
macroeconomic effect of pandemic influenza on the US economy. The study, A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible
Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues, was released in December 2006. This study uses a simple model to project
the economic impact two scenarios, mild and severe. The model used projects rates of absenteeism expected for
various industrial sectors of the economy and determines the effect this will have on US GDP. It predicts little
or no impact from a mild pandemic and a modest economic recession costing the US $675 billion dollars with a
severe pandemic.
View the .pdf(690kb) - Osterholm Congressional Testimony Dec 2005.pdf
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On December 7, 2005, Michael Osterholm, PhD testified before the House Committee on International Relations. In
his testimony, he explained how the current organization of this country’s “just in time
”inventory management
system places us at risk for an economic collapse. He focused specifically on several key industries that he
argued deserved special consideration to keep them operating during a pandemic because they are critical to the
health and security of the nation. He called this concept “critical product continuity”. Examples given were
drugs, healthcare supplies, food, water service, waste removal and mortuary services.
View the .pdf(84k) - Are We Missing the Point of the Pandemic Planning 2005.pdf
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Are We Missing the Point of Pandemic Planning is a scenario driven exploration of what the business climate may be
like if the world experiences a major influenza pandemic along the lines of 1918. The authors, Gary Sikich and
John Stagl translate the morbidity and mortality projections into real world consequences for companies. They
explore how globalization has increased the complexity of the world economy and created more risk due to rising
interdependence between nations. The author’s recognize that models of an event as complex as an influenza
pandemic are unreliable at best and misleading at worst. Irrespective of this view, they project a devastatingly
realistic scenario for the US and world economy during and after a severe influenza pandemic.
View the .pdf(120kb) - Business Pandemic Planning Checklist US DHHS 6Dec2005.pdf
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The DHHS and the US CDC have prepared a series of checklists for use by small business to help them prepare for
influenza pandemic. The title of this document is The Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist
and this is
exactly what the document delivers. There two brief surveys used to inform business planners about the areas that
may need attention to ensure business survival. The first concentrates business continuity issues and the second
on the affect a pandemic may have on a businesses employees and customers. The checklist is a good place to start
the process of forming a business pandemic preparedness plan for small and medium sized companies. The results of
the survey will help business owner*#8217;s focus on what needs to be done to survive the pandemic intact. scenario
for the US and world economy during and after a severe influenza pandemic.
View the .pdf(277kb) - Insurance Infor Inst Pandemic Can life insurance survive Pandemic 17Jan2006.pdf
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Pandemic: Can the Life Insurance Industry Survive the Avian Flu? This report was sponsored by the Insurance
Information Institute and written by an economist, Steven Weisbart. He estimates that death benefits payouts will
range from $31 billion for a mild to $133 billion for a severe pandemic. This study explores how the deaths of
insured in various age groups affect the benefit payouts. He concludes that industry payouts will be greatest if
the pandemic results in a high death rate among the age 15 to 40 year old group, as was the case in 1918. While
reserves and capital overall are adequate, the severe scenario could bankrupt some insurance carriers.
View the .pdf(291kb) - Bulls, Bears, and Birds Preparing for Pandemic Deutsche Bank 25Sep2005.pdf
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Bulls, Bears, and Birds: Preparing the Financial Community for a Pandemic is a conference report
sponsored by Deutsche Bank on September 25, 2005. This summary describes the presentations made by at the conference. The
purpose of these presentations is to bring the financial community up to speed on basic pandemic issues including
some facts about the H5N1 virus and the dangers of the pandemic. NYC’s plans for responding to pandemic influenza
is presented as are the approach to developing an efficacious vaccine. Despite the conference name, there is no
investment advice or discussion reported.
View the .pdf(160kb) - Global MacroEcon Effect of Pandemic Lowy Inst Feb2006.pdf
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The Lowery Institute sponsored study; Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza is one of the most
thorough treatments of the issue published to date. The authors examine to potential impact of four specific
pandemic scenarios ranging from mild to ultra severe on world production of goods and services. Projections are
provided for most major countries or producing regions for each scenario. The study estimates that a mild
pandemic would reduce global GDP by $330 billion with the most severe ultra pandemic reducing production and
consumption by $4.4 trillion. This is one of the most comprehensive studies performed to date and provides a
level of detail not found in other published open-source material.
View the .pdf(765kb) - World Economic Impact of Bird Flu Pandemic IMF 28Feb2006.pdf(388kb)
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The Global Economic and Financial Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic and the Role of the IMF is a study by the
International Monetary Fund released on February 6, 2006. This report examines the effect a pandemic might have
on flows on funds between countries in the developed, developing, and undeveloped world and suggests policy
options to prevent the development of a credit crisis occurring concurrently with the pandemic. The study bases
its projections on pandemic scenarios provided by the WHO and predict that the impact of a pandemic could be
initially severe but that world economies will quickly rebound from the shock. This report is rather bureaucratic
in style and weak in its methods and assumptions compared to those produced by the NGOs and private investment
advisors.
View the .pdf(765kb) - Cooper S., Avian Flu Crisis Update Mar2006.pdf
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In The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update, Sherry Cooper, PhD provides new insights on the national and global
impact of a potential avian flu pandemic. The update was published on March 12, 2006. It discusses the CBO, Asian
Development Bank, and Lowy Flu Studies and compares their models to her own. Dr. Cooper provides the reader with
a clear assessment of how pandemic influenza can disrupt the supply and consumption of goods and services. She
writes in an unambiguous style that is unusually transparent and entertaining compared with most economists. Her
practical approach to this issue is refreshing and helpful for those trying to grasp the economic significance of
an avian flu pandemic.
View the .pdf(494kb) - Are We Missing the Point of the Pandemic Planning 2005.pdf
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- BCP_Pandemic_Preparedness.pdf
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- Business Pandemic Response.pdf
- View the .pdf(702k)
- Emergency Management Plan for Business FEMA 1993.pdf
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- Influenza Pandemic Simulation Booz Allen 2006.pdf
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- Its Not Flu As Usual ATH.pdf
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